prediction-market-oracle-research

Prediction Market Oracle Research

Use this skill when prediction markets are being considered as a data source, forecasting input, oracle-like signal, or decision-intelligence layer.

Guardrails

• Do not treat market prices as objective truth.
• Do not provide investment advice or trading recommendations.
• Separate venue mechanics, liquidity, incentives, and resolution rules from the implied signal.
• Call out manipulation, thin liquidity, stale markets, and ambiguous outcomes.
• For on-chain or execution-linked systems, run llm-trading-agent-security before granting any write authority.

Research Workflow

1. Define the decision the signal is meant to inform.
2. Find relevant markets, events, tags, and venues.
3. Record market-implied probabilities with timestamps and source links.
4. Evaluate signal quality:
   • liquidity
   • spread
   • market age
   • trader/incentive concentration if known
   • resolution authority
   • geography or account restrictions
5. Compare against non-market sources such as filings, news, polls, research, customer data, or internal KPIs.
6. Recommend whether the signal is usable, weak, or unsuitable for the stated decision.

Integration Patterns

• Research assistant: source-grounded context for a human analyst.
• Dashboard signal: market-implied probability alongside internal metrics.
• Agent memory input: a time-stamped signal that can be retrieved later.
• Alerting input: notify when probabilities, spreads, or liquidity cross a threshold.
• Scenario planning: compare multiple event outcomes without automating trades.

Output Contract

Use:

1. decision context
2. market sources
3. signal quality
4. comparison sources
5. integration recommendation
6. caveats

End with:

Prediction-market signals are informational inputs, not investment advice.