financial-modeling

Financial Modeling Skill

Overview

I help you build integrated 3-statement financial models that link Income Statement, Balance Sheet, and Cash Flow Statement. These models are essential for valuation, budgeting, and strategic planning.

What I can do:

• Build income statement projections

• Create balance sheet forecasts

• Generate cash flow statements

• Model working capital requirements

• Build debt schedules and interest calculations

• Create scenario analysis (base/bull/bear cases)

What I cannot do:

• Access real-time financial data

• Guarantee projection accuracy

• Provide accounting advice

• Replace professional financial analysis

How to Use Me

Step 1: Provide Historical Data

I need 2-3 years of:

• Income statement (revenue, COGS, operating expenses)

• Balance sheet (assets, liabilities, equity)

• Cash flow statement (optional but helpful)

Step 2: Define Projection Assumptions

Key drivers:

• Revenue growth rate

• Gross margin

• Operating expense ratios

• Capex as % of revenue

• Working capital days (DSO, DIO, DPO)

Step 3: Choose Model Scope

• Basic: Income statement only

• Standard: Income statement + balance sheet

• Full: Complete 3-statement model with cash flow

Model Architecture

Three-Statement Linkages

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                    INCOME STATEMENT                         │
│  Revenue → Gross Profit → Operating Income → Net Income     │
└─────────────────────────┬───────────────────────────────────┘
                          │
        Net Income flows to Retained Earnings
                          │
                          ▼
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                    BALANCE SHEET                            │
│  Assets = Liabilities + Equity                              │
│  (Must balance via Cash as plug)                            │
└─────────────────────────┬───────────────────────────────────┘
                          │
        Changes in B/S items drive CF Statement
                          │
                          ▼
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                  CASH FLOW STATEMENT                        │
│  Operating CF + Investing CF + Financing CF = Δ Cash        │
│  Ending Cash flows back to Balance Sheet                    │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Key Formulas

Income Statement Drivers

Revenue = Prior Year × (1 + Growth Rate)
COGS = Revenue × (1 - Gross Margin %)
Gross Profit = Revenue - COGS
SG&A = Revenue × SG&A %
EBITDA = Gross Profit - SG&A
D&A = Prior PP&E × D&A Rate OR Revenue × D&A %
EBIT = EBITDA - D&A
Interest = Avg Debt × Interest Rate
EBT = EBIT - Interest
Taxes = EBT × Tax Rate
Net Income = EBT - Taxes

Balance Sheet Drivers

Accounts Receivable = Revenue × (DSO / 365)
Inventory = COGS × (DIO / 365)
Accounts Payable = COGS × (DPO / 365)
PP&E = Prior PP&E + Capex - D&A
Retained Earnings = Prior RE + Net Income - Dividends
Cash = Total Liabilities + Equity - Other Assets (plug)

Cash Flow Statement

Operating Cash Flow:
  Net Income
  + D&A (non-cash)
  - Increase in AR
  - Increase in Inventory
  + Increase in AP
  = Cash from Operations

Investing Cash Flow:
  - Capex
  = Cash from Investing

Financing Cash Flow:
  + Debt Issuance
  - Debt Repayment
  - Dividends
  = Cash from Financing

Net Change in Cash = CFO + CFI + CFF

Output Format

# Financial Model: [Company Name]

**Projection Period**: [Years]
**Base Year**: [Year]
**Currency**: [USD/CNY/etc.]

---

## Key Assumptions

| Driver | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|
| Revenue Growth | XX% | XX% | XX% | XX% | XX% |
| Gross Margin | XX% | XX% | XX% | XX% | XX% |
| SG&A % Revenue | XX% | XX% | XX% | XX% | XX% |
| Capex % Revenue | XX% | XX% | XX% | XX% | XX% |
| DSO (days) | XX | XX | XX | XX | XX |
| DIO (days) | XX | XX | XX | XX | XX |
| DPO (days) | XX | XX | XX | XX | XX |

---

## Income Statement Projection

| ($M) | Base | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|------|------|-----|-----|-----|-----|-----|
| **Revenue** | | | | | | |
| Growth % | | | | | | |
| COGS | | | | | | |
| **Gross Profit** | | | | | | |
| Gross Margin % | | | | | | |
| SG&A | | | | | | |
| **EBITDA** | | | | | | |
| EBITDA Margin % | | | | | | |
| D&A | | | | | | |
| **EBIT** | | | | | | |
| Interest Expense | | | | | | |
| **EBT** | | | | | | |
| Taxes | | | | | | |
| **Net Income** | | | | | | |
| Net Margin % | | | | | | |

---

## Balance Sheet Projection

| ($M) | Base | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|------|------|-----|-----|-----|-----|-----|
| **ASSETS** | | | | | | |
| Cash | | | | | | |
| Accounts Receivable | | | | | | |
| Inventory | | | | | | |
| **Current Assets** | | | | | | |
| PP&E (net) | | | | | | |
| Other Assets | | | | | | |
| **Total Assets** | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | |
| **LIABILITIES** | | | | | | |
| Accounts Payable | | | | | | |
| Short-term Debt | | | | | | |
| **Current Liabilities** | | | | | | |
| Long-term Debt | | | | | | |
| **Total Liabilities** | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | |
| **EQUITY** | | | | | | |
| Common Stock | | | | | | |
| Retained Earnings | | | | | | |
| **Total Equity** | | | | | | |
| **Total L + E** | | | | | | |

✓ Balance Check: Assets = Liabilities + Equity

---

## Cash Flow Statement

| ($M) | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|------|-----|-----|-----|-----|-----|
| **Operating Activities** | | | | | |
| Net Income | | | | | |
| D&A | | | | | |
| Change in AR | | | | | |
| Change in Inventory | | | | | |
| Change in AP | | | | | |
| **Cash from Operations** | | | | | |
| | | | | | |
| **Investing Activities** | | | | | |
| Capex | | | | | |
| **Cash from Investing** | | | | | |
| | | | | | |
| **Financing Activities** | | | | | |
| Debt Changes | | | | | |
| Dividends | | | | | |
| **Cash from Financing** | | | | | |
| | | | | | |
| **Net Change in Cash** | | | | | |
| Beginning Cash | | | | | |
| **Ending Cash** | | | | | |

---

## Key Metrics Summary

| Metric | Base | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|--------|------|-----|-----|-----|-----|-----|
| Revenue Growth | | | | | | |
| Gross Margin | | | | | | |
| EBITDA Margin | | | | | | |
| Net Margin | | | | | | |
| ROE | | | | | | |
| Debt/Equity | | | | | | |
| FCF | | | | | | |

Tips for Better Results

• Provide clean historical data in a consistent format

• Be specific about growth drivers (volume vs price, organic vs acquisition)

• Specify industry context for appropriate benchmarks

• Ask for scenario analysis to understand range of outcomes

• Request sensitivity tables for key assumptions

Limitations

• Projections are only as good as the assumptions

• Cannot model complex corporate structures

• Does not account for one-time items automatically

• Simplified tax calculations

• Currency assumed constant (no FX modeling)

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