prediction-market-oracle-research
This skill researches prediction markets as data sources or oracle signals for products, agents, dashboards, and corporate decision intelligence. It automatically finds relevant markets, records implied probabilities, evaluates signal quality (liquidity, spread, etc.), and outputs integration recommendations, enabling source-grounded analysis without investment advice.
npx skills add https://github.com/affaan-m/ecc --skill prediction-market-oracle-researchBefore / After Comparison
1 组Users manually collect data from multiple prediction market websites, checking each market, recording probabilities, and evaluating liquidity, which is time-consuming and prone to missing key signals.
This skill automatically searches relevant markets, extracts implied probabilities, and evaluates signal quality, delivering a structured analysis report at once.
Prediction Market Oracle Research
Use this skill when prediction markets are being considered as a data source, forecasting input, oracle-like signal, or decision-intelligence layer.
Guardrails
- Do not treat market prices as objective truth.
- Do not provide investment advice or trading recommendations.
- Separate venue mechanics, liquidity, incentives, and resolution rules from the implied signal.
- Call out manipulation, thin liquidity, stale markets, and ambiguous outcomes.
- For on-chain or execution-linked systems, run
llm-trading-agent-securitybefore granting any write authority.
Research Workflow
- Define the decision the signal is meant to inform.
- Find relevant markets, events, tags, and venues.
- Record market-implied probabilities with timestamps and source links.
- Evaluate signal quality:
- liquidity
- spread
- market age
- trader/incentive concentration if known
- resolution authority
- geography or account restrictions
- Compare against non-market sources such as filings, news, polls, research, customer data, or internal KPIs.
- Recommend whether the signal is usable, weak, or unsuitable for the stated decision.
Integration Patterns
- Research assistant: source-grounded context for a human analyst.
- Dashboard signal: market-implied probability alongside internal metrics.
- Agent memory input: a time-stamped signal that can be retrieved later.
- Alerting input: notify when probabilities, spreads, or liquidity cross a threshold.
- Scenario planning: compare multiple event outcomes without automating trades.
Output Contract
Use:
- decision context
- market sources
- signal quality
- comparison sources
- integration recommendation
- caveats
End with:
Prediction-market signals are informational inputs, not investment advice.
User Reviews (0)
Write a Review
No reviews yet
Statistics
User Rating
Rate this Skill