---
id: gh-prediction-market-oracle-research
name: "prediction-market-oracle-research"
url: https://skills.yangsir.net/skill/gh-prediction-market-oracle-research
author: affaan-m
domain: data-ai
tags: ["prediction-markets", "oracle-signals", "decision-intelligence", "market-analysis", "signal-evaluation"]
install_count: 4100
rating: 4.40 (120 reviews)
github: https://github.com/affaan-m/ecc/tree/main/skills/prediction-market-oracle-research
---

# prediction-market-oracle-research

> 此技能用于研究预测市场作为数据源或预言机信号，服务于产品、代理、仪表盘和企业决策情报。它能够自动查找相关市场、记录隐含概率、评估信号质量（如流动性、价差），并输出整合建议，帮助用户在不依赖投资建议的情况下做出信息驱动的决策。

**Stats**: 4,100 installs · 4.4/5 (120 reviews)

## Before / After 对比

### 预测市场信号研究效率

**Before**:

用户手动从多个预测市场网站收集数据，需要逐个查看市场、记录概率、评估流动性，耗时费力且容易遗漏关键信号。

**After**:

此技能自动搜索相关市场，提取隐含概率并评估信号质量，一次性输出结构化的分析报告。

| Metric | Before | After | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 信号遗漏率 | 60% | 10% | -83% |

## Readme

# Prediction Market Oracle Research

Use this skill when prediction markets are being considered as a data source,
forecasting input, oracle-like signal, or decision-intelligence layer.

## Guardrails

- Do not treat market prices as objective truth.
- Do not provide investment advice or trading recommendations.
- Separate venue mechanics, liquidity, incentives, and resolution rules from the
  implied signal.
- Call out manipulation, thin liquidity, stale markets, and ambiguous outcomes.
- For on-chain or execution-linked systems, run `llm-trading-agent-security`
  before granting any write authority.

## Research Workflow

1. Define the decision the signal is meant to inform.
2. Find relevant markets, events, tags, and venues.
3. Record market-implied probabilities with timestamps and source links.
4. Evaluate signal quality:
   - liquidity
   - spread
   - market age
   - trader/incentive concentration if known
   - resolution authority
   - geography or account restrictions
5. Compare against non-market sources such as filings, news, polls, research,
   customer data, or internal KPIs.
6. Recommend whether the signal is usable, weak, or unsuitable for the stated
   decision.

## Integration Patterns

- Research assistant: source-grounded context for a human analyst.
- Dashboard signal: market-implied probability alongside internal metrics.
- Agent memory input: a time-stamped signal that can be retrieved later.
- Alerting input: notify when probabilities, spreads, or liquidity cross a
  threshold.
- Scenario planning: compare multiple event outcomes without automating trades.

## Output Contract

Use:

1. decision context
2. market sources
3. signal quality
4. comparison sources
5. integration recommendation
6. caveats

End with:

```text
Prediction-market signals are informational inputs, not investment advice.
```


---
*Source: https://skills.yangsir.net/skill/gh-prediction-market-oracle-research*
*Markdown mirror: https://skills.yangsir.net/api/skill/gh-prediction-market-oracle-research/markdown*